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Couldn't Have Said It Better Myself

Bryon at Slings and Arrows is absolutely right when he attrubutes the Bush convention bounce to three things: Swiftboat Veterans for Truth, the wacky protesters, and the Republican Party's forward looking message.

First the Swiftboat ads. Bryon says:

Here, the left wing media tried to run interference for their boy, by ignoring the story and hoping no one would notice. Kudos to the blogosphere and talk radio for pushing the story until it could no longer be ignored by the left wing media. What killed Kerry is that, by stupidly ignoring the Clinton rule (answer every attack immediately), they allowed us to define the debate for a critical one or two weeks, without any alternate explanation. Kerry still hasn't answered the most serious allegations of the Swiftboat Veterans (except to retract the Xmas in Cambodia story and backpedal on one of the purple hearts), and his defensiveness now seems like guilt.

On the effect of the protesters, Bryon and i are on the same page.

I predicted that the effect of the protests would be the exact opposite of what the protesters intended. For that prediction, i became the object of the Democratic Underground's scorn. But i was right. This is not the sixties anymore, despite what the unholy alliance of professors, reporters and entertainers think. Freaks in pink thongs and feather boas are not the best advertisement for any political movement. And when Fox News is getting the ratings it currently enjoys, that means a lot of people like them, including a lot of undecideds. It's therefore probably not a good idea to chant "Fox News sucks!" and "Fox News - Bullshit!"

And on the Republican Party's superior forward looking message, Bryon contrasts the two conventions thusly:

I might add the first lady to the list of hopeful and optimistic speakers.

People may criticize the Zell Miller speech, but in retrospect, it seems to have worked. It wasn't a liability, because of the protesters outside, and three years of over the top rhetoric by the entertainment and academic elites. Zell Miller spoke to the "silent majority" who is tired of the America hating that has been going on unchallenged in this country for too long.

Do i think the "bounce" will hold until November? Barring any intervening events, a trumped-up scandal or another terrorist attack for instance, yes i do. But on the other hand, there's nothing i trust less than a desperate Democrat about to lose an election. There's no telling what they have up their sleeve.